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 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">MOSCOW ECONOMIC JOURNAL</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">MOSCOW ECONOMIC JOURNAL</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Московский экономический журнал</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="online">2413-046X</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">74881</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24411/2413-046Х-2019-13002</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>Отраслевая и региональная экономика</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject></subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>Отраслевая и региональная экономика</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">К вопросу об использовании статистических моделей для целей социально-экономических исследований</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>К вопросу об использовании статистических моделей для целей социально-экономических исследований</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Иванов</surname>
       <given-names>Николай Иванович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Ivanov</surname>
       <given-names>Nikolay Ivanovich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>nickibut@yandex.ru</email>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Чемодин</surname>
       <given-names>Юрий Александрович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Chemodin</surname>
       <given-names>Yuriy Aleksandrovich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>yur.stroim-hotel@yandex.ru</email>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Шевченко</surname>
       <given-names>Татьяна Викторовна</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Shevchenko</surname>
       <given-names>Tat'yana Viktorovna</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>tatyanavidn@mail.ru</email>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Горбунов</surname>
       <given-names>Владимир Сергеевич</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Gorbunov</surname>
       <given-names>Vladimir Sergeevich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>79164369421@ya.ru</email>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-4"/>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Государственный университет по землеустройству</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Государственный университет по землеустройству</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-2">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Государственный университет по землеустройству</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Государственный университет по землеустройству</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-3">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Государственный университет по землеустройству</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Государственный университет по землеустройству</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-4">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Государственный университет по землеустройству</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Государственный университет по землеустройству</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <pub-date publication-format="print" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2019-03-25T14:01:20+03:00">
    <day>25</day>
    <month>03</month>
    <year>2019</year>
   </pub-date>
   <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2019-03-25T14:01:20+03:00">
    <day>25</day>
    <month>03</month>
    <year>2019</year>
   </pub-date>
   <volume>4</volume>
   <issue>3</issue>
   <fpage>2</fpage>
   <lpage>2</lpage>
   <history>
    <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2019-03-07T14:01:20+03:00">
     <day>07</day>
     <month>03</month>
     <year>2019</year>
    </date>
    <date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="2019-03-15T14:01:20+03:00">
     <day>15</day>
     <month>03</month>
     <year>2019</year>
    </date>
   </history>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://mshj.ru/en/nauka/article/74881/view">https://mshj.ru/en/nauka/article/74881/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>Методом статистического моделирования предпринимается анализ одной из демографических составляющих пространственного развития территории Российской Федерации. Для подготовки материалов были использованы открытые источники информации, публикуемые на официальном сайте Росстат. Статистический анализ данных проводился в программе Statistica. По результатам проведенного исследования была выявлена корреляционная зависимость между средней продолжительностью жизни населения и одиннадцатью социально-экономическими показателями. Методом множественной регрессии определена рабочая модель прогнозирования значений средней продолжительности жизни россиян. Статистически обоснована возможность увеличения средней продолжительности жизни населения в России до 78 лет. Одним из важных аспектов исследования становится не предложенная возможность достижения одного из прогнозных значений социально-экономических показателей, заложенных в «Майских указах» Президента России, а отраженные на ее основе недостатки, которые предлагаются для дальнейшего обсуждения в научном сообществе. По результатам проведенной работы на дискуссию выносится возможность формирования методологического аппарата, который будет статистически обосновывать выполнение стратегических задач развития Российской Федерации на период до 2024 года.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>This article aims to create methodology by which we can explain implementation of Russian development strategy. Authors used statistical data of Federal State Statistics Service for preparing this article. Was used software Statistica for calculations. This article includes: specific features of the state system in Russia; problems of regional development including their social and economic differences; the historical reasons owing to regional economy be crisis; article says why we need to change something for increase life expectancy at presently; authors selected multiple regression method for answer how to increase life expectancy in Russia and execute May Edict of mister President, how is it possible? Results of this exploring proved that between lifetime indicator and other social and economic indicators are causality dependent. Due to multiple regression method was create working model on which you can forecasting lifetime expectancy rate in Russian Federation. Authors convince oneself that lifetime expectancy people who live in Russian Federation may be 78 years instead of 72 years. In the end was illustrate that presidential decrees, which were given to The Russian Government in may 2018, can be fulfil in real. The shortcomings of statistical modeling of government decisions are proposed for discussion. This is one of the important aspects of article. Based on the results of the work carried out, the possibility of forming a methodological apparatus that will statistically justify the implementation of the strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024 is brought to the discussion. Conclusions of this research can be used at regional state and municipal state, in future.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>региональная экономика</kwd>
    <kwd>регионы России</kwd>
    <kwd>экономический потенциал региона</kwd>
    <kwd>межрегиональные сопоставления</kwd>
    <kwd>статистические методы исследования</kwd>
    <kwd>регрессионный анализ</kwd>
    <kwd>качество жизни населения</kwd>
    <kwd>продолжительность жизни населения</kwd>
    <kwd>демография</kwd>
    <kwd>стратегия экономического роста</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>regional economy</kwd>
    <kwd>Russian regions</kwd>
    <kwd>region economic potential</kwd>
    <kwd>interregional comparisons</kwd>
    <kwd>statistical methods researching</kwd>
    <kwd>regression analysis</kwd>
    <kwd>quality of lifetime</kwd>
    <kwd>lifetime expectancy</kwd>
    <kwd>demography</kwd>
    <kwd>economic growth strategy</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
 <body>
  <p>This article aims to create methodology by which we can explain implementation of Russian development strategy. Authors used statistical data of Federal State Statistics Service for preparing this article. Was used software STATISTICA for calculations. This article includes: specific features of the state system in Russia; problems of regional development including their social and economic differences; the historical reasons owing to regional economy be crisis; article says why we need to change something for increase life expectancy at presently; authors selected multiple regression method for answer how to increase life expectancy in Russia and execute May Edict of mister President, how is it possible? Results of this exploring proved that between lifetime indicator and other social and economic indicators are causality dependent. Due to multiple regression method was create working model on which you can forecasting lifetime expectancy rate in Russian Federation. Authors convince oneself that lifetime expectancy people who live in Russian Federation may be 78 years instead of 72 years. In the end was illustrate that presidential decrees, which were given to The Russian Government in may 2018, can be fulfil in real. The shortcomings of statistical modeling of government decisions are proposed for discussion. This is one of the important aspects of article. Based on the results of the work carried out, the possibility of forming a methodological apparatus that will statistically justify the implementation of the strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024 is brought to the discussion. Conclusions of this research can be used at regional state and municipal state, in future.</p>
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