A PROBABILISTIC MODEL OF THE PROCESS OF LAND RECLAMATION MANAGEMENT
Rubrics: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AND POLICIES
Authors:
1.
Kuban State Agrarian University named after I. T. Trubilin
2.
Kuban State Agrarian University named after I. T. Trubilin
3.
Kuban State Agrarian University named after I. T. Trubilin
Type:
Article
eLocation:
Status:
Published
Received:
06.12.2019
Accepted:
15.12.2019
Published:
25.12.2019
Language:
Russian
Keywords:
risovodstvo, matematicheskaya model', urozhaynost', rentabel'nost', di-versifikaciya, resursosberezhenie
Abstract (English):
There are many different methods that allow assessing qualitatively and / or quantitatively the degree of influence of different agricultural practices on the reclamation state of soils and predict crop yields to value the growth of anthropogenic load. However, it is extremely difficult to assess the impact of one reclamation indicator (criterion) on the potential yield and dynamics of soil reclamation state, because it is always in the interaction with other reclamation indicators (criteria), which can lead both to strengthening and reducing its degree of influence on the reclamation state of the soil. Differentiation of the degree of influence of reclamation indicators (criteria) depending on the relationship with other reclamation indicators (criteria) is one of the primary tasks of agriculture, and its solution will improve the economic security of Russia. Our researches have shown that the key to solving this problem is the use of mathematical models implemented in modern software products which allow agricultural workers to organize and to give a differential assessment of different variants of managerial decisions on development of technological cards, which are formed by taking into account multivariation and multicriteria of obtained values of soil reclamation status, climatic factors and available material and technical resources of the economy. Therefore, the mathematical model shown in the article can be considered as a reasonable choice to improve the efficiency of land reclamation management. The expressions of mathematical expectation (average value) and density of probabilities of duration of occurrence of a satisfactory reclamation state by irrigation system are made in the work. The use of the developed probabilistic model of the process of management of planned activities will allow employees of the agro-industrial complex to reduce the risks of uncertainty in management decisions.
There are many different methods that allow assessing qualitatively and / or quantitatively the degree of influence of different agricultural practices on the reclamation state of soils and predict crop yields to value the growth of anthropogenic load. However, it is extremely difficult to assess the impact of one reclamation indicator (criterion) on the potential yield and dynamics of soil reclamation state, because it is always in the interaction with other reclamation indicators (criteria), which can lead both to strengthening and reducing its degree of influence on the reclamation state of the soil. Differentiation of the degree of influence of reclamation indicators (criteria) depending on the relationship with other reclamation indicators (criteria) is one of the primary tasks of agriculture, and its solution will improve the economic security of Russia. Our researches have shown that the key to solving this problem is the use of mathematical models implemented in modern software products which allow agricultural workers to organize and to give a differential assessment of different variants of managerial decisions on development of technological cards, which are formed by taking into account multivariation and multicriteria of obtained values of soil reclamation status, climatic factors and available material and technical resources of the economy. Therefore, the mathematical model shown in the article can be considered as a reasonable choice to improve the efficiency of land reclamation management. The expressions of mathematical expectation (average value) and density of probabilities of duration of occurrence of a satisfactory reclamation state by irrigation system are made in the work. The use of the developed probabilistic model of the process of management of planned activities will allow employees of the agro-industrial complex to reduce the risks of uncertainty in management decisions.
Keywords:
risovodstvo, matematicheskaya model', urozhaynost', rentabel'nost', di-versifikaciya, resursosberezhenie
risovodstvo, matematicheskaya model', urozhaynost', rentabel'nost', di-versifikaciya, resursosberezhenie
