Russian Federation
UDC 338.43.02
The study examines the impact of D. Trump's new tariff policy on US agri-food exports, aiming to identify the consequences of protectionist measures for the American agricultural sector and farmers. The methodology is based on contextual and logical analysis, comparison and generalization methods. The research establishes that the US agricultural sector becomes the primary target of retaliatory trade measures, leading to export reduction and decreasing farm incomes. Federal economic assistance programs only partially compensate losses, providing farmers with support amounting to 10 billion dollars under the Farm Bill extended until September 2025. The analysis shows that traditional importers of American products are reorienting toward alternative markets: China, having imposed tariffs of 135 to 145% on American agricultural products, increases purchases from Brazil, whose soybean harvest in 2025 will reach a record 164.3 million tons, with total production of grains, legumes, and oilseeds reaching 327.6 million tons. The study reveals specific features of US trade relations with Canada, where high tariffs on dairy products reach up to 300%, and with Mexico, which remains the largest export market for American agricultural products. For the EU, increased duties of up to 200% on European wines threaten the loss of the American market, which accounts for a quarter of wine exports from Italy and Spain. According to the WTO, the imposed tariffs will lead to a 0.2% decline in international trade in 2025 and an 8-10% increase in global food prices. The study concludes that Russian exporters will not gain significant advantages from the trade confrontation, as Russia is not considered by China as a key alternative supplier of agricultural products.
USA, new tariff policy, protectionist measures, world market, agricultural exports, farms, agricultural prices
1. Morgan, S. (2022). "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture". Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, January 2022. Available at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/102980/err-304.pdf?v=8211 (accessed: 25.04.2025).
2. Economic Research Service. "Federal Government direct farm program payments, 2014-2023F". Available at: https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.aspx?ID=17833 (accessed: 25.04.2025).
3. Farm Bill Home. Available at: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/tools/informational/farm-bill (accessed: 20.04.2025).
4. Sifting Through the 2024 Spending Deal, and Looking Ahead to 2025. Available at: https://sustainableagriculture.net/blog/sifting-through-the-2024-spending-deal-and-looking-ahead-to-2025/ (accessed: 25.04.2025).
5. China hits back at Trump with reciprocal tariffs, sanctions of US firms. Available at: https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3300948/china-hits-back-trump-reciprocal-tariffs-sanctions-us-firms (accessed: 25.04.2025).
6. US-China tariffs continue to hold sway over trade. Available at: https://www.world-grain.com/articles/21310-us-china-tariffs-continue-to-hold-sway-over-trade (accessed: 25.04.2025).
7. IBGE: Brazilian grain harvest expected to break record in 2025. Available at: https://revistacultivar.com/news/IBGE%3A-Brazilian-grain-harvest-expected-to-break-record-in-2025 (accessed: 25.04.2025).
8. Rossiya za 2 mesyaca vdvoe sokratila postavki soi v Kitay. URL: https://rosng.ru/post/rossiya-za-2-mesyaca-vdvoe-sokratila-postavki-soi-v-kitay (data obrascheniya: 15.04.2025).
9. Why is China angry about a plan to sell two ports on the Panama Canal? Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/1/why-is-china-angry-about-a-plan-to-sell-two-ports-on-the-panama-canal (accessed: 25.04.2025).
10. «Tarifnaya voyna» Trampa oslozhnyaet mirovuyu torgovlyu molochnoy produkciey. URL: https://milknews.ru/index/tramp-poshliny-moloko.html (data obrascheniya: 15.04.2025).
11. What Canada’s 300% Tariff on Dairy Imports Actually Means. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-26/canada-s-300-tariff-on-us-milk-dairy-what-it-actually-means (accessed: 25.04.2025).
12. Does Canada really have tariffs above 200% on US dairy products? Available at: https://www.newsnationnow.com/business/canada-200-percent-dairy-tariff-fact-check/ (accessed: 25.04.2025).
13. Fact check: What Trump doesn’t mention about Canada’s dairy tariffs. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/10/politics/trump-canada-dairy-tariffs-fact-check/index.html (accessed: 25.04.2025).
14. U.S. dairy exports top $8 billion in 2024. Available at: https://www.dairyfoods.com/articles/97959-us-dairy-exports-top-8-billion-in-2024 (accessed: 25.04.2025).
15. Trump tariffs will send global trade into reverse this year, warns WTO. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/16/trump-tariffs-will-send-global-trade-into-reverse-this-year-warns-wto (accessed: 25.04.2025).
