MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR ANALYZING SUPPLY AND DEMAND FACTORS AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO HOUSING PRICE DYNAMICS IN RUSSIA

Nikolay V. Muzylev; Anastasiya V. Starostina; Lyudmila A. Belousova

doi:10.55186/2413046X_2025_10_9_207

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MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR ANALYZING SUPPLY AND DEMAND FACTORS AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO HOUSING PRICE DYNAMICS IN RUSSIA

Published in MOSCOW ECONOMIC JOURNAL · Volume 10, Issue 9 · Pages 26–49 · Rubric: Regional and branch economy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/2413046X_2025_10_9_207

Received: 14.09.2025 Accepted: 02.10.2025 Published: 02.10.2025

Authors

Nikolay V. Muzylev

Anastasiya V. Starostina

Lyudmila A. Belousova

Nikolay V. Muzylev

Academic degree: candidate of physical and mathematical sciences

Science rang: docent

Institute of Artificial Intelligence, MIREA - Russian Technological University Associate Professor · Department of Higher Mathematics · Russian Federation · Moscow

Anastasiya V. Starostina

Institute of Artificial Intelligence, MIREA - Russian Technological University Senior Lecturer · Department of Higher Mathematics · Russian Federation · Moscow

Lyudmila A. Belousova

Institute of Artificial Intelligence, MIREA - Russian Technological University Senior Lecturer · Department of Higher Mathematics · Russian Federation · Moscow

ABSTRACT

Over the past few years, the cost of residential real estate in the Russian market of new buildings has shown rapid growth, significantly outpacing such economic indicators as the general inflation rate, the dynamics of income of citizens, rental prices and costs of construction companies. This trend has led to a doubling of average prices in the primary housing market since the beginning of 2020. The formation of prices for residential real estate is a complex process caused by the complex impact of numerous determinants. This study uses a modified version of the methodological approach originally developed by A. Shapiro in order to quantify the contribution of supply and demand factors to the observed housing price growth in the regions of the Russian Federation. This work is the first attempt in the academic literature to decompose the price changes for residential real estate in Russia from 2016 to 2024 into components determined by supply and demand, with a comparative analysis in the regional context. The calculations performed and the subsequent analysis provide new opportunities for interpreting the reasons for the rise in housing prices in various regions of the Russian Federation. The results obtained make it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of the implemented measures of state support for the real estate market, as well as to form reasonable predictive scenarios regarding the further trajectory of price changes.

KEYWORDS

housing prices, real estate market, supply and demand, measures to support the housing market

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Muzylev N. V., Starostina A. V., Belousova L. A. MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR ANALYZING SUPPLY AND DEMAND FACTORS AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO HOUSING PRICE DYNAMICS IN RUSSIA // MOSCOW ECONOMIC JOURNAL. 2025. no. 9. pp. 26-49. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/2413046X_2025_10_9_207. (Date of access 11.10.2026).

MLA

Nikolay V. Muzylev, Starostina A. V., Belousova L. A.. "MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR ANALYZING SUPPLY AND DEMAND FACTORS AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO HOUSING PRICE DYNAMICS IN RUSSIA." MOSCOW ECONOMIC JOURNAL 10.9 (2025): 26-49. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/2413046X_2025_10_9_207.

APA

Muzylev N. V., Starostina A. V., Belousova L. A. (2025). MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR ANALYZING SUPPLY AND DEMAND FACTORS AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO HOUSING PRICE DYNAMICS IN RUSSIA. MOSCOW ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 10(9), 26-49. https://doi.org/10.55186/2413046X_2025_10_9_207

Chicago

Nikolay V. Muzylev, Starostina A. V., Belousova L. A.. "MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR ANALYZING SUPPLY AND DEMAND FACTORS AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO HOUSING PRICE DYNAMICS IN RUSSIA." MOSCOW ECONOMIC JOURNAL 10, no. 9 (2025): 26-49. https://doi.org/10.55186/2413046X_2025_10_9_207.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Muzylev N. V., Starostina A. V., Belousova L. A. | title = MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR ANALYZING SUPPLY AND DEMAND FACTORS AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO HOUSING PRICE DYNAMICS IN RUSSIA | journal = MOSCOW ECONOMIC JOURNAL | year = 2025 | volume = 10 | issue = 9 | pages = 26-49 | doi = 10.55186/2413046X_2025_10_9_207 }}

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MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR ANALYZING SUPPLY AND DEMAND FACTORS AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO HOUSING PRICE DYNAMICS IN RUSSIA

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