SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF WORLDWIDE COCOA PRODUCTION USING EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODELS
Rubrics: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AND POLICIES
Authors:
1.
African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Type:
Article
eLocation:
Status:
Published
Received:
06.04.2022
Accepted:
15.04.2022
Published:
25.04.2022
Language:
Russian
Keywords:
Kakao, proizvodstvo kakao, statistika, kratkosrochnoe prognozirovanie, eksponencial'noe sglazhivanie, metod Hol'ta
Abstract (English):
The paper presents the results of forecasting the scale of cocoa production in 2021. Cocoa is a unique, unparalleled agricultural product. The global cocoa market is subject to fluctuations, but the demand for the commodity, according to experts, is stable and constantly increasing. Experts predict a constantly growing demand for cocoa beans. They note the high attractiveness of confectionery products, as well as the variety of uses for cocoa products in different industries. Both the traditional markets of Europe and North America, as well as Latin American and African countries with rapidly developing economies, are now showing and will not lose interest in cocoa beans and cocoa products in the future. This stimulates the growth of production. The author considered it appropriate to check this trend using statistical forecasting methods. For this, the built-in tools of the spreadsheet editor MS Excel (MS Office 2019) were used. The forecast was made using simple and double exponential smoothing models, which make it possible to fairly accurately predict the development of the situation in the short term. Statistical information from the database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (UN FAO) for a 60-year period was taken as a basis. By applying exponential smoothing methods, the author was convinced that an increase in cocoa production was predicted; at the same time, Holt's method showed a higher growth. The resulting forecasts are close to the estimates of world experts in the cocoa market, so the results of the forecast can be considered reliable.
The paper presents the results of forecasting the scale of cocoa production in 2021. Cocoa is a unique, unparalleled agricultural product. The global cocoa market is subject to fluctuations, but the demand for the commodity, according to experts, is stable and constantly increasing. Experts predict a constantly growing demand for cocoa beans. They note the high attractiveness of confectionery products, as well as the variety of uses for cocoa products in different industries. Both the traditional markets of Europe and North America, as well as Latin American and African countries with rapidly developing economies, are now showing and will not lose interest in cocoa beans and cocoa products in the future. This stimulates the growth of production. The author considered it appropriate to check this trend using statistical forecasting methods. For this, the built-in tools of the spreadsheet editor MS Excel (MS Office 2019) were used. The forecast was made using simple and double exponential smoothing models, which make it possible to fairly accurately predict the development of the situation in the short term. Statistical information from the database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (UN FAO) for a 60-year period was taken as a basis. By applying exponential smoothing methods, the author was convinced that an increase in cocoa production was predicted; at the same time, Holt's method showed a higher growth. The resulting forecasts are close to the estimates of world experts in the cocoa market, so the results of the forecast can be considered reliable.
Keywords:
Kakao, proizvodstvo kakao, statistika, kratkosrochnoe prognozirovanie, eksponencial'noe sglazhivanie, metod Hol'ta
Kakao, proizvodstvo kakao, statistika, kratkosrochnoe prognozirovanie, eksponencial'noe sglazhivanie, metod Hol'ta
