UDC 330.43
Over the past few years, the cost of residential real estate in the Russian market of new buildings has shown rapid growth, significantly outpacing such economic indicators as the general inflation rate, the dynamics of income of citizens, rental prices and costs of construction companies. This trend has led to a doubling of average prices in the primary housing market since the beginning of 2020. The formation of prices for residential real estate is a complex process caused by the complex impact of numerous determinants. This study uses a modified version of the methodological approach originally developed by A. Shapiro in order to quantify the contribution of supply and demand factors to the observed housing price growth in the regions of the Russian Federation. This work is the first attempt in the academic literature to decompose the price changes for residential real estate in Russia from 2016 to 2024 into components determined by supply and demand, with a comparative analysis in the regional context. The calculations performed and the subsequent analysis provide new opportunities for interpreting the reasons for the rise in housing prices in various regions of the Russian Federation. The results obtained make it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of the implemented measures of state support for the real estate market, as well as to form reasonable predictive scenarios regarding the further trajectory of price changes.
housing prices, real estate market, supply and demand, measures to support the housing market
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