Forecasting of indicators characterizing the development strategy of the horticulture industry and related processing units is based on knowledge of technologies for the production of horticultural products and their processing, biological characteristics of manufactured products that significantly affect the processes of storage and processing, understanding the sequence, interrelation of technological stages and data, we appear on each of them. Economic and mathematical methods are used to plan the strategy of the processing unit in conjunction with nursery and horticulture. We used the optimization economic and mathematical model on the example of one of the diversified enterprises of the Lipetsk region, which, in addition to agricultural activities, processes fruits and berries. The variables formed within the framework of this model and the restrictions associated with them are divided into three blocks: the nursery unit; the horticulture and berry cultivation unit; and the horticultural processing unit. The results of the model solution determined the structure of the nursery and orchard areas, taking into account scientific recommendations, the market situation, the need for seedlings for garden reproduction and the need for processing in raw materials. According to the data obtained, the main part of the nursery should be devoted to the cultivation of apple seedlings, including 88.3% of the nursery area for winter varieties, 7.6% for autumn and 3.8% for summer varieties. 0.05 hectares will be needed for the production of rowan seedlings. Among berry plantations, it is advisable to grow material for the reproduction of plants only for currants - 0.02 ha. In the process of solving the model, the range and volume of production of processed apples and berries were also determined. As a result, a structural change in the range of processed products produced at the enterprise will increase revenue from its sale by almost 5 times. In general, the level of profitability in horticulture, berry cultivation and processing will increase from the actual 101.5% to the projected 189.9%.
gardening, processing, strategy, optimization economic and mathematical model, profitability
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